# Announced vs. Started: How Many of Toronto's Federally Announced Homes Were Already Coming?
Research document · Canopticon · published 2026-10-18
Canonical: https://canopticon.com/p/announced-vs-started-how-many-of-toronto-s-federally-announced-homes-were-already-coming
License: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
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# Announced vs. Started: How Many of Toronto's Federally Announced Homes Were Already Coming?

## TL;DR

On August 5, 2026, Ottawa and the City of Toronto announced a partnership to "unlock" 18 projects with more than 5,600 rental homes [1]. A project-by-project check finds that 13 of the 18 projects, about 3,800 of the 5,605 homes (about 68%), had already been announced by the city or had work under way on site before that date. About 2,300 of the homes (about 41%) were in projects where demolition, excavation or a groundbreaking had already happened [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. One project, 72 Perth Avenue, held its groundbreaking ten weeks earlier with the local federal MP in attendance [3]. Four of the nine Build Canada Homes sites are city Housing Now sites designated in 2019–2020, where construction was once expected to start as early as 2022 [9]. CMHC's routine loan announcements show the same pattern: financing for buildings already under construction is announced as new building [10][11][12]. This does not make the federal money fake. Construction loans are real, and they may be what kept these projects alive. But the announcements cannot be added up as new supply. The same building is counted by the city, by Ottawa and in HAF permit totals, sometimes with different affordable-unit numbers. Meanwhile Toronto-area starts keep falling [15][16].

## Key Findings

- The August 2026 Canada–Toronto partnership lists 18 projects with 5,605 homes: 1,885 in nine Build Canada Homes projects and 3,720 in nine ACLP projects. It says construction is "expected to begin on more than 4,500 homes" before the end of 2026 [1].
- **72 Perth Avenue** (255 homes) broke ground on May 22, 2026 with the Mayor and the federal MP for Davenport. The developer said construction was underway [2][3]. Ten weeks later it appeared in the federal partnership as an ACLP project. The federal list gives it 104 affordable units; the city and the developer say 51 [1][2][3].
- **49 Ontario Street** (1,226 homes in two towers) had demolition and excavation under way from early 2026 [8]. The **Toronto Coach Terminal** (827 homes) was announced by the city in November 2024 [6] and had a tower crane up one week after the federal announcement [7].
- **1552 Weston Road** and **Greencedar Commons (3379–3385 Lawrence Ave. E.)** appeared on the city's May 2024 list of already-funded affordable projects expected to start construction in 2024–2025 [4]. Both appear again in the 2026 federal list [1].
- Four of the nine Build Canada Homes projects (Bloor-Islington, 158 Borough Drive, 405 Sherbourne Street, 150 Queen's Wharf Road) are Housing Now sites. The city designated them in January 2019 and May 2020 and expected construction on some sites to begin in 2022 [9]. Together they make up 1,295 of BCH's 1,885 Toronto homes [1].
- In June 2024 Toronto asked Ottawa and Ontario for $2.6 billion in low-cost financing and $165 million in funding for about 6,000 rental homes in 18 stalled projects [4][5]. The 2026 deal provides more than $1.8 billion in ACLP financing and more than $310 million from BCH for 18 projects and more than 5,600 homes [1]. The city's 2024 project list is confidential, so it cannot be confirmed that the two lists are the same, but at least one project (72 Perth) is on both [2][4].
- CMHC press releases have announced ACLP loans for Toronto rentals that were already being built. Valhalla Village was announced in January 2024 while the developer described it as breaking ground [10]. 3101 Bathurst was announced in July 2025 with construction already under way [11]. 389 Cleveland was announced in June 2026 under a groundbreaking headline [12].
- At Toronto's HAF launch, Ottawa described the agreement as fast-tracking nearly 12,000 new housing units. The city's contractual target is 60,980 net new *permitted* homes over three years, and its own estimate of homes attributable to HAF was about 11,780 permits [10][13]. Permits are not starts. Toronto's permits stayed close to baseline while its starts fell sharply [14].
- Outside Toronto, HAF instalments keep flowing while starts fall. Brampton's starts went from 7,028 (2023) to 5,791 (2024) to 4,759 (2025) under a $114 million HAF agreement [18]. Mississauga received its third instalment ($28.2 million; more than $84 million in total) in March 2026 [19], even though the PBO had found its permits below baseline [14].

## Details

### 1. What an announcement counts

Housing announcements in Canada use at least five different units. They are often reported as if they were the same thing:

- **Funding or financing committed.** Dollars attached to a project or a program, such as an ACLP loan, a BCH contribution or a city grant.
- **Homes *supported* or *unlocked*.** The full unit count of a project that receives any government money, whether or not the money decided whether the project went ahead.
- **Permits.** The Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) measures net new permitted homes [13].
- **Starts.** CMHC's Starts and Completions Survey counts actual construction starts [15].
- **Completions.** Homes ready to occupy.

The gap between these units is largest at Toronto's HAF agreement. When it was signed, the federal government described a $471 million agreement that would "fast-track nearly 12,000 new housing units over the next three years" and "spur the construction of 53,000 homes over the next decade" [10]. The city's own report describes something different. Its target is 60,980 net new permitted homes between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2026, of which its HAF application estimated about 11,780 would be permits issued *above* what would otherwise have happened [13]. So the federal figure of nearly 12,000 is an estimate of incremental permits, not housing units built or started. The city reported 22,849 permitted homes in 2024 [13]. Yet the PBO found that Toronto CMA starts fell sharply over October 2024–April 2025 while permits barely moved, and concluded that the city's "decline in starts appears to be driven by economic conditions" [14]. Toronto CMA starts fell 31% in 2025, to 26,087, and were down another 14% in January–September 2026, to 17,397 [15][16].

The ACLP figures have the same layers. CMHC describes the program as a "$55 billion" fund "to support more than 131,000 new rental homes across Canada by 2031 – 2032" [11][12]. Actual loan commitments were $23.35 billion for more than 59,000 rental homes as of March 2025 [11], and $29.45 billion for more than 74,600 rental homes as of December 2025 [12]. These are commitments, not starts. CMHC's releases do not say how many committed homes have started or been completed.

### 2. The August 2026 partnership, project by project

The backgrounder lists every project, with unit and affordable counts [1]. For each one I looked for an earlier public announcement and for the status of construction on or before August 5, 2026. Status comes from city releases, developer releases and UrbanToronto's site photography.

| Project | Homes (federal list) | Earlier public record | Physical status before Aug 5, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 Perth Ave (ACLP) | 255 | City Rental Housing Supply Program (RHSP) project; zoning approved May 2025 [2] | Groundbreaking May 22, 2026; "Construction is underway" [2][3] |
| 49 Ontario St, East + West (ACLP) | 1,226 | Dream/CentreCourt rental development [8] | Demolition and excavation since early 2026 [8] |
| Toronto Coach Terminal, 610 Bay + 130 Elizabeth (ACLP) | 827 | City/CreateTO announced Nov 21, 2024: 873 homes, 290 affordable [6] | Excavation under way; crane up by Aug 12, 2026 [7] |
| 1552 Weston Rd (ACLP) | 50 | City list, May 2024: funded, starting construction 2024–2025 [4] | Not established |
| Greencedar Commons, 3379–3385 Lawrence Ave E (ACLP) | 155 | City list, May 2024: funded, starting construction 2024–2025 [4] | Not established |
| 55–75 Brownlow Ave (ACLP) | 733 (incl. 121 replacement units) | Not checked | Not established |
| 7 St. Dennis Dr, Phase 1 (ACLP) | 474 | Not checked | Not established |
| Bloor-Islington (BCH) | 301 | Housing Now Phase One, Jan 2019 [9] | Not established |
| 158 Borough Dr (BCH) | 425 | Housing Now Phase Two, May 2020 [9] | Not established |
| 405 Sherbourne St (BCH) | 301 | Housing Now Phase Two, May 2020; planning permission approved [9] | Not established |
| 150 Queen's Wharf Rd (BCH) | 268 | Housing Now Phase Two, May 2020 [9] | Not established |
| 805 Wellington A, 15 Denison, 1113–1125 Dundas W, C1 Bayside, Parkdale Hub (BCH) | 590 | Not checked | Not established |

**Tally (my calculation from the table).** Projects with a prior public announcement or with physical work under way before August 5 account for 3,808 of the 5,605 homes, about 68%. Projects with demolition, excavation or a groundbreaking before the announcement (72 Perth, 49 Ontario, Coach Terminal) account for 2,308 homes, about 41%. Both are lower bounds: I did not check the remaining projects, and some of them may also have earlier announcements. Two cautions apply. Demolition and excavation are not necessarily a CMHC "start". *Inference:* CMHC records starts at a defined construction milestone, so site work can come months before the start is counted. Also, the 121 replacement units at 55–75 Brownlow replace existing homes and are not net new [1].

**72 Perth Avenue: one building, three announcements.** The city's May 22, 2026 release marked "the start of construction at 72 Perth Ave.". It credited the city's RHSP, about $16.5 million in city capital funding and incentives (including an indefinite deferral of all development charges and a 15% property-tax reduction), and named Davenport MP Julie Dzerowicz among those at the groundbreaking [3]. The developer's release that week said: "Construction is underway, with occupancy targeted for 2028." It described the project as one of 17 approved under the city's RHSP. It credited private, City and Federal support together [2]. Ten weeks later, the federal backgrounder listed 72 Perth among the projects the partnership would unlock [1]. The backgrounder also gives 72 Perth 104 affordable units, while noting that "The 51 affordable units required under the Rental Housing Supply Program, will be managed and operated by Woodgreen Community Housing." [1] The city and the developer both say 51 affordable homes [2][3]. Neither release explains the other 53 units in the federal count. They may carry a separate ACLP affordability commitment at a different rent level, but no source reviewed here says so.

**The Coach Terminal: counted twice, with different numbers.** In November 2024 the city announced the Coach Terminal redevelopment as "a 100 per cent purpose-built rental project, delivering 873 new homes including 290 affordable rental homes" with completion expected in Q1 2029 and Q1 2030 [6]. The federal list gives 827 homes (280 + 547) and 218 affordable (74 + 144) [1]. UrbanToronto's August 12 update gives the same 827 total [7]. The design may have changed between 2024 and 2026, but the affordable count falls by 72 between the two government announcements and neither explains the change. One week after the federal announcement, the site had "quickly moved from demolition into construction" with a crane erected at 130 Elizabeth [7].

**The 2024 request, answered in 2026.** In May 2024 Toronto's Housing Secretariat proposed allocating $351,515,142 in city capital funding to 18 affordable-rental projects. These had been approved under earlier city programs but were stuck. The city estimated they would bring more than 2,600 affordable homes and 3,380 market and rent-controlled homes into construction, almost 6,000 in total [4]. The report expected these homes to reach construction start in 2024 and 2025 [4]. A June 2024 supplementary report asked Ottawa and Ontario to provide $2.6 billion in low-cost financing and $165 million in funding for the 6,000 rental homes the program would enable [5]. Two years later the federal partnership committed more than $1.8 billion in ACLP financing, more than $310 million in BCH funding and up to $600 million more in ACLP capacity, for 18 projects with more than 5,600 homes [1]. *Inference:* the size, the project count and the number of homes all closely match the city's 2024 request. The August 2026 deal looks like a delayed federal answer to it, not a new pipeline. The city's 2024 project list is a confidential attachment [4], so the match cannot be confirmed project by project. 72 Perth is the one overlap documented in public sources [2].

**Housing Now: seven years from designation.** Housing Now, launched in January 2019, puts affordable housing on City-owned sites. Its Phase One included 3326 Bloor Street West and 1226 Islington Avenue (Bloor-Islington). Phase Two, in May 2020, added 158 Borough Drive, 405 Sherbourne Street and 150 Queens Wharf Road [9]. The city's program page set out a 2–4 year delivery model and said "Construction on some of the sites is expected to begin in 2022." [9] All four sites appear in the 2026 BCH portfolio, which is "expected to reach substantial completion by March 2031" [1]. That would be 11–12 years after designation. *Inference:* the federal money may be what finally makes these sites viable. The PBO's estimate that BCH will add about 2.1% to national completions over five years [17] is consistent with that kind of finishing role. But these homes have been in the city's announced pipeline since 2019–2020, and they are not new to it.

**What the 4,500-start promise means.** The partnership promises more than 4,500 starts before the end of 2026 [1]. *Inference:* about 2,300 of the portfolio's homes were already in site work or past groundbreaking by early August [2][3][7][8], so a large share of that target was effectively met before the announcement. The figure does not measure what the partnership itself adds.

### 3. The pattern in CMHC's routine announcements

The August partnership is not unusual. CMHC's own Toronto releases show financing announcements attached to buildings already under construction:

- **Valhalla Village, 300 The East Mall (January 16, 2024).** CMHC announced $235.9 million in ACLP loans for 494 rentals, with completion expected by May 2027 [10]. In the same release the developer's spokesperson said: "Breaking ground at Valhalla Village is a critical first step" [10]. The city's May 2024 list put 300–304 The East Mall Phase 1 among affordable projects already under construction [4].
- **Vivant at Bedford Park, 3101 Bathurst (July 28, 2025).** CMHC announced $81.5 million in ACLP loans for 159 rentals and stated: "Construction is underway and expected to be complete by the Fall of 2027." [11]
- **383–389 Cleveland Street (June 8, 2026).** CMHC announced more than $112 million in ACLP financing for 217 rental homes under the headline "Canada announces the groundbreaking of 217 homes in Toronto" as part of a passage about Build Canada Homes [12].

**The nuance.** An ACLP loan is construction financing. Lenders normally commit such financing before or around the start of construction, and a project may depend on it to start at all. The date of an announcement is not the date of the credit decision. A ribbon-cutting announcement can come months after CMHC committed the loan that made the groundbreaking possible. So these examples do not show that federal financing was irrelevant. They show that a public announcement tells a reader nothing about whether the federal money was decisive, or when it was committed. Releases headlined with *build* or *groundbreaking* invite the reader to count the homes as new federal output, when the project may have been financeable on other terms.

### 4. One building, several governments, no shared ledger

72 Perth Avenue shows how a single building enters several governments' totals:

- **The city** counts it among the "more than 44 projects under construction, which will deliver more than 11,000 new homes" that it supports, with 51 affordable homes [3].
- **Ottawa** counts it among the 5,600-plus homes in the partnership, with 104 affordable [1].
- **HAF reporting.** The project's permits presumably count toward Toronto's 60,980 target [13]. *Inference:* every net new permitted home in the city counts toward that target, so this is likely, but no source reviewed confirms it for this project.

No public ledger links a project's city approvals, federal financing, HAF permit count and CMHC start. The city's RHSP project list is confidential [4]. CMHC's monthly starts data are published by geography, not by project [15]. Federal releases name projects but do not report whether they have started. The same project can also carry different affordable-unit counts depending on who announces it: 51 vs. 104 at 72 Perth, and 290 vs. 218 at the Coach Terminal [1][2][3][6].

*Inference:* adding up announced homes across governments (city "supports", federal "unlocks", HAF "fast-tracks") overstates new supply, possibly by a lot. The only total that cannot double-count is CMHC's starts, and in the Toronto CMA it went down: 37,718 in 2024, 26,087 in 2025 [16], and 17,397 through September 2026, against 20,129 a year earlier [15].

### 5. Outside Toronto: instalments flow, starts fall

**Brampton.** Brampton signed its HAF agreement in October 2023: $114 million "to support the development of 24,000 units over the next decade" paid in four annual instalments conditional on meeting action-plan targets [18]. Using City of Brampton and Ontario tracker figures, The Pointer reports starts of 7,028 in 2023, 5,791 in 2024 and 4,759 in 2025, against the city's provincially assigned pace of 11,300 a year [18]. In June 2026, council allocated $12.48 million from its next HAF instalment, expected early in 2027, to a 104-unit non-profit project [18]. The Pointer also reports that the Region of Peel paused new water and wastewater projects after cutting development charges by 50%, citing utility-rate pressure [18]. The development-charge cuts promoted as a supply measure are colliding with the cost of the infrastructure those charges used to pay for.

**Mississauga.** In March 2026 Mississauga received its third HAF instalment, $28.2 million, bringing the total to more than $84 million. The federal minister said the payment "reflects the successful implementation of initiatives outlined in its Housing Action Plan" [19]. The PBO's July 2025 review had listed Mississauga among jurisdictions issuing fewer permits than their baseline projections [14]. *Inference:* interim HAF instalments appear to be paid for carrying out action-plan initiatives (rezonings, incentive programs, fee changes), not for permit or start outcomes. Toronto's agreement ties only the final instalment to reaching the permit target [13]. That design pays for policy change, which governments control, rather than for construction, which they do not. As a result the money keeps flowing during a construction slump.

### 6. What can and cannot be verified

**Verifiable now:** whether a project had a prior city or federal announcement (city reports and releases), whether visible site work was under way (developer releases, UrbanToronto photography), and the unit and affordable counts each government claims [1]–[12].

**Not verifiable from public sources:**
- whether a given project's CMHC start has been recorded, since CMHC does not publish starts by project [15];
- when an ACLP loan was actually committed, as opposed to announced;
- which projects were on Toronto's confidential 2024 list of 18 [4];
- how many of the partnership's promised 4,500 starts will be new as opposed to already in progress [1].

## Beyond this question

- **For the Canopticon housing record:** the earlier report found federal programs have not offset the GTA's construction collapse. This report adds a mechanism for why announcements feel bigger than outcomes. The same pipeline of long-stalled city projects is announced again at each new stage of funding, and each government counts it.
- **For attribution work:** this is a measurable version of the credit-capture question in the record's articles on Build Canada Homes. The point is not who designed the program but whose number a given building ends up in. 72 Perth is a clean case study, because three primary sources published within ten weeks give different framings of the same building.
- **A practical instrument:** a public announced-versus-started ledger for the GTA could be built from federal backgrounders, CMHC releases, city council reports and permit and site-work evidence. Each row would be one building, with every announcement, every claimed unit and affordable count, and the date of visible construction. The August 2026 backgrounder's 18 projects are a ready-made first batch [1].
- **For readers of federal housing releases:** treat *unlock*, *support* and *groundbreaking* as financing events, not supply events. The question to ask of any announcement is whether the project would have started without this money, and the release will not answer it.

## Open questions

- **Was federal money decisive?** No source reveals whether the ACLP or BCH money for these 18 projects made the difference between building and not building. Loan commitment dates, as distinct from announcement dates, are not public.
- **Is the 2024 city list the same as the 2026 federal list?** It is suggestive, but only 72 Perth is confirmed on both. The city's Confidential Attachment 1 [4] would settle it.
- **Unexplained unit changes.** Nobody has explained 104 vs. 51 affordable units at 72 Perth, or 873/290 vs. 827/218 at the Coach Terminal [1][2][3][6].
- **Status of the unchecked projects.** 55–75 Brownlow, 7 St. Dennis, 1552 Weston, Greencedar Commons and five BCH projects were not traced to physical status in this pass.
- **Will the 4,500 starts happen, and how many are new?** CMHC monthly data for October–December 2026 will show whether Toronto starts rise. Project-level confirmation would need city building-permit and inspection records.
- **HAF outcomes.** Toronto's permit window closes December 31, 2026 [13]. Brampton's and Mississauga's permit and start results against their HAF targets were not reviewed beyond the figures above.
- **Coverage was thin outside Toronto.** The Brampton figures come from a local news outlet citing city and provincial data, and the Mississauga figures from a city release republished on the mayor's site. York, Durham and Halton were not examined.

## Sources

1. [Backgrounder: Canada and Toronto announce new partnership to build thousands of new homes](https://www.canada.ca/en/housing-infrastructure-communities/news/2026/08/canada-and-toronto-announce-new-partnership-to-build-thousands-of-new-homes.html) — Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada, August 5, 2026
2. [Castlepoint Numa and Hazelview Break Ground on 255-Unit Rental Building in Toronto's Junction Triangle](https://www.hazelview.com/the-latest/announcements/castlepoint-numa-and-hazelview-break-ground-on-255-unit-rental-building-in-toronto-s-junction-triangle) — Hazelview Investments, May 25, 2026
3. [City of Toronto breaks ground on 255 new rental homes in Davenport, including 51 affordable homes](https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-breaks-ground-on-255-new-rental-homes-in-davenport-including-51-affordable-homes/) — City of Toronto, May 22, 2026
4. [Launching the Rental Housing Supply Program (Report for Action, with Attachment 2)](https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2024/ph/bgrd/backgroundfile-246339.pdf) — City of Toronto, Executive Director, Housing Secretariat, May 30, 2024
5. [Launching the Rental Housing Supply Program – Supplementary Report](https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2024/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-247170.pdf) — City of Toronto, Executive Director, Housing Secretariat, June 25, 2024
6. [City of Toronto and CreateTO announce development partners and vision for the historic Toronto Coach Terminal site](https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-and-createto-announce-development-partners-and-vision-for-the-historic-toronto-coach-terminal-site/) — City of Toronto, November 21, 2024
7. [Crane Rises as Demolition Wraps at Toronto Coach Terminal Redevelopment](https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2026/08/crane-rises-demolition-wraps-toronto-coach-terminal-redevelopment.61530) — UrbanToronto, August 12, 2026
8. [Demolition, Excavation Advance at 49 Ontario Street in Toronto's Old Town](https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2026/04/demolition-excavation-advance-49-ontario-street-torontos-old-town.60735) — UrbanToronto, April 6, 2026
9. [Housing Now](https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/community-partners/affordable-housing-partners/housing-now/) — City of Toronto, program page (accessed October 2026)
10. [Canada announces over $230 million in financing for new rental homes in Toronto](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2024/federal-government-announces-over-230-million-financing-new-rental-homes-toronto) — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, January 16, 2024
11. [Building more homes in Toronto](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2025/building-more-homes-toronto) — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, July 28, 2025
12. [Canada announces the groundbreaking of 217 homes in Toronto](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/canada-announces-groundbreaking-217-homes-toronto) — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, June 8, 2026
13. [Progress Update – Housing Accelerator Fund (Report for Action)](https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2025/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-253050.pdf) — City of Toronto, February 4, 2025
14. [An Update on the Housing Accelerator Fund](https://www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires/BLOG-2526-005--an-update-housing-accelerator-fund--point-fonds-accelerer-construction-logements) — Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, July 10, 2025
15. [Housing starts and construction data for September 2026](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-construction-data-september-2026) — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, October 16, 2026
16. [Housing starts up 5.6% in 2025 from 2024](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-december-2025) — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, January 16, 2026
17. [Build Canada Homes and the Outlook for Housing Programs under Budget 2025](https://www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publications/RP-2526-020-S--build-canada-homes-outlook-housing-programs-under-budget-2025--maisons-canada-perspectives-entourant-programmes-logement-dans-cadre-budget-2025) — Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, December 2, 2025
18. [Brampton's housing starts falling further behind rapidly rising demand](https://thepointer.com/article/2026-07-24/brampton-s-housing-starts-falling-further-behind-rapidly-rising-demand) — The Pointer, July 24, 2026
19. [Mississauga receives $28 million in federal funding to help ongoing efforts to boost housing supply](https://www.carolynparrish.ca/mississauga-receives-28-million-in-federal-funding-to-help-ongoing-efforts-to-boost-housing-supply/) — City of Mississauga release, republished by the Office of Mayor Carolyn Parrish, March 10, 2026