Léger
no publicly released datasets from Elections Canada, Statistics Canada, Abacus, Léger, EKOS, Angus Reid, Nanos or Ipsos publish a 'vote intention by employment sector' crosstab on a regular basis. Last-digit uniformity tests are more apt2.
no publicly released datasets from Elections Canada, Statistics Canada, Abacus, Léger, EKOS, Angus Reid, Nanos or Ipsos publish a 'vote intention by employment sector' crosstab on a regular basis
Last-digit uniformity tests are more apt
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
Benford's Law analysis on poll percentages is largely inappropriate
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
Léger's federal contracts are ~$1.37M
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
Léger was co-founded in 1986 by Marcel Léger
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
The 12 federal contracts worth $1.37M in 2024–25 represent perhaps 1.5–2.5% of revenue
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
No Canadian pollster operates a probability-based panel
The Quebec sub-industry has historically been more accurate at provincial Quebec elections than English Canadian firms have been at Canadian federal elections.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
English Canadian polling has structurally moved away from CATI; Quebec polling has retained it longer.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
The cost to build is $25M, and $5–10M/year to maintain.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
Revenue estimates for individual polling firms are rough.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
Léger's hybrid telephone+online approach performs better than pure online, slightly worse than pure IVR.
PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Gover
These are things people say about Léger that aren't settled fact — each one attributed to who's actually claiming it, so a claim never quietly passes as established just because it showed up in a document. Weigh it yourself.
"Léger VP of Transformation and AI Sarah Mottet claimed an 85–90% concordance score between Smart Persona output and traditional human panel results."
"Léger's federal contracts (~$1.37M) are perhaps 1.5–2.5% of estimated revenue"
"Léger is the *least* susceptible to federal POR contract capture among the top-tier firms"
"The synthetic respondent inflection point is the highest-leverage Pass 6 target."
"industry-wide honest but methodologically biased measurement"
"Léger is the least susceptible to federal POR contract capture among the top-tier firms"
"the private-sector revenue dwarfs the federal revenue for the publicly-visible pollsters"
"Léger's 85–90% concordance claim is not an independently validated benchmark."