On the record see profile →
Mainstreet's IVR-and-mixed-mode methodology partially corrects
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“Mainstreet's IVR-and-mixed-mode methodology partially corrects”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
The correlation between principal partisanship and poll accuracy is essentially zero.
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“The correlation between principal partisanship and poll accuracy is essentially zero,”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Mainstreet is the most accurate firm with 1.2 point total error in 2025.
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“picks up these voters and is correspondingly more accurate (1.2 point total error in 2025 — best of any firm)”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
the major federal pollsters collect $14–19 million per year in Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC) public-opinion research contracts
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“the major federal pollsters collect another **$14–19 million per year** in Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC) public-opinion research contracts”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
IVR pollsters had the best 2025 performance
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
“The IVR pollsters (Mainstreet, Liaison) had the *best* 2025 performance with a 5.5-point average total error”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
The distribution of last digits looks plausibly uniform
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
“the distribution looks plausibly uniform, with no obvious clustering at 0 or 5”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Mainstreet's methodology uses IVR with demographic and regional weighting
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
“Mainstreet's methodology — based on its public site and 338Canada poll cards — describes IVR (cell and landline) with demographic and regional weighting”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
The 2017 Calgary failure was diagnosed by the Adams/Adams/Zussman MRIA panel report
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad
“The 2017 Calgary failure was diagnosed by the Adams/Adams/Zussman MRIA panel report”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Mainstreet's IVR-and-mixed-mode methodology, with random-digit-dial cell-and-landline contact, picks up these voters and is correspondingly more accurate
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“Mainstreet's IVR-and-mixed-mode methodology, with random-digit-dial cell-and-landline contact, picks up these voters and is correspondingly more accurate”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Mainstreet Research has no documented partisan tilt.
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“No documented partisan tilt.”
VERIFIED — a word-for-word match in the stored source
Disputed — who says what, against what see standalone →
These are things people say about Mainstreet Research that aren't settled fact — each one attributed to who's actually claiming it, so a claim never quietly passes as established just because it showed up in a document. Weigh it yourself.
Reported
"Mainstreet's reforms are real"
Unattributed assertion · stance: pro
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad ↗
Reported
"political polling for these firms is marketing"
Unattributed assertion · stance: pro
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad ↗
Reported
"the incentive is to maximize visibility, which means publishing frequently and being part of the story — not necessarily to maximize accuracy"
Unattributed assertion · stance: neutral
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad ↗
Reported
"Anti-SLAPP protects the journalist; it does not protect against the pollster simply refusing to give interviews"
Unattributed assertion · stance: neutral
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the T ↗
Reported
"the single most damaging fact for pollster independence is not who pays for the polls — it is who runs them"
Unattributed assertion · stance: neutral
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
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Reported
"Mainstreet's 2025 result is partially unverifiable"
Asserted by Éric Grenier · stance: critical
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad ↗
Reported
"The deliberate-rigging hypothesis is not supported by the fact that the most accurate firm is the least federally networked."
Unattributed assertion · stance: critical
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
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Reported
"political polling for these firms is marketing"
Unattributed assertion · stance: pro
Not yet independently weighed — one source's claim, unconfirmed elsewhere.
Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canad ↗
Timeline see standalone →
2017
2017
2017 Calgary failure
2025
2025
2025 national accuracy race
2027
2027
2027 Ontario provincial election
People
David Valentinother
Joseph Angolanoemployed by
Éric Grenierother
Quito Maggiemployed by