Open problems
1Questions it raises
2Is the variance of final-week 2025 polls smaller than statistical theory predicts?Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canadian PollingQuestionWhen does pollster capture become a story?PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the Threshold of a Canadian Polling ScandalQuestion
Key figures
14~40% cellphone share (target should have been 60–70%)Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canadian Polling40%The Jan-2025 ">99% CPC win" reading was not a model failure; it was a correct probabilistic statement given the input polls at that moment.Pass 2: The Forensics, the Math, and the Philosophy of Canadian Polling99%Crowfoot 2025 was a systematically biased model event — the 338Canada model's incorporation of national-trend signal pulled Poilievre's predicted share toward 73% when local fundamentals never wavered from the 80% range.PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the Threshold of a Canadian Polling Scandal73%Carney's 58% one-year approval is in the middle of the historical distribution — below the two-thirds enjoyed by Chrétien and J.PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the Threshold of a Canadian Polling Scandal58%Janet Brown Opinion Research (Calgary), using Trend Research (Edmonton) for 40% landline / 60% cell hybrid telephone — "Albertans calling Albertans" — has the strongest track record in Alberta polling.PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the Threshold of a Canadian Polling Scandal40%The 2019 AggregateIQ (AIQ, Victoria-based, Cambridge Analytica-linked) joint federal/BC investigation found AIQ's safeguards inadequate and exposed the personal information of 35 million people — yet produced no party-level enforcement.PASS 4 — The Researchers, The Natural Experiments, and the Threshold of a Canadian Polling Scandal35 millionThe 2024–25 drop is notable — a roughly 23% year-on-year contraction that aligns with the late-Trudeau-era fiscal restraint signal but also coincides with election-cycle reduction.PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Government Political Economy23%Léger reports 600+ employees and is described in industry sources at revenue scales of $55–80M+ annually.PASS 5 — FOLLOW THE MONEY: The Canadian Media-Pollster-Government Political Economy$55–80M+
All 14 in the Library